11 October 2022, University of Antwerp, City Campus, Building R, Rodestraat 14, auditorium S.R. 007

UCSIA Peace Chair

Dr Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Washington DC

European thinking on security has become trapped in an intellectual and political framework that is contrary to the real security needs of Europe.

The first element in this has been the strategy of expelling Russia from the European security order, and turning all Russia’s Western neighbours into anti-Russian allies of NATO. Russia’s violent response to this is morally, politically and legally wrong – but it has also been predicted by wise Western analysts ever since the issue of NATO expansion first emerged. The ensuring threat to European energy supplies, economies, and political stability should also have been obvious.

Implicit in this strategy, and now confirmed by the war in Ukraine and the Western response, is complete European security dependence on the United States. Given that from 2025, the US President may again be Donald Trump, the folly of this should hardly need underlining. This dependence will be deepened still further if NATO bows to US pressure and adopts China as another enemy.

The deepest tragedy is that this strategy completely misses the greatest threat to the survival of liberal democracy in Europe, which is not Russia, but the long-term threat of runaway climate change (especially centred on the Arctic); and in the medium term, the combination of climate change with the appalling problems of Africa. This combination threatens to create waves of migration to Europe that will in turn generate nativist reactions that will destroy European liberal democracy from within.

More info & registration.